Delphi technique - перевод на русский
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Delphi technique - перевод на русский

STRUCTURED COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE OR METHOD
Delphi technique; Delphi effect; Delphi Technique; Delphic method; Delphic technique; Delphi pools; Delphi pool; Delphi Pool; Methods of expert estimations; Method of expert estimations; Delphi study; The Delphi method; Delphi consensus; Delphi poll; Mini-Delphi
  • The Delphi method communication structure
  • A web-based communication structure (Hyperdelphi)<ref name="Bolognini"/>

Delphi technique         
метод Дельфи, метод экспертных оценок
Delphi method         
метод Дельфи, метод экспертных оценок
Delphi method         
дельфийский метод; исследование с помощью метода опроса ряда экспертов, на основании результатов которого строится прогноз, осуществляется предсказание будущих событий.
метод экспертных оценок Делфи; метод получения социологической информации путем опроса экспертов по соответствующей проблеме.

Определение

Delphi Technique
<programming, tool> A group forecasting technique, generally used for future events such as technological developments, that uses estimates from experts and feedback summaries of these estimates for additional estimates by these experts until reasonable consensus occurs. It has been used in various software cost-estimating activities, including estimation of factors influencing software costs. (1996-05-29)

Википедия

Delphi method

The Delphi method or Delphi technique ( DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.

Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines. It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research.

Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stop criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results), and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.

Special attention has to be paid to the formulation of the Delphi theses and the definition and selection of the experts in order to avoid methodological weaknesses that severely threaten the validity and reliability of the results.

Как переводится Delphi technique на Русский язык